Working Papers

Planning for Tidal Current Turbine Technology: A case study of the Gulf of St. Lawrence - Final Version Published Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews December 2016

Stephen J. Sangiuliano

The combustion of fossil fuels for purposes of energy production has accelerated the rate at which the planet is warming, thereby causing adverse effects on natural ecosystems across the globe. The consequences of climate change arising from the use of conventional fuels such as coal, oil, and gas demands a shift towards the use of sustainable, emissions-free renewable energy technologies. When planning for the implementation of new energy systems, several factors must be examined in order to determine the viability of a system to meet energy demands in a sustainable and efficient manner. This paper provides an overview of tidal current turbines (TCTs), examining how they function to produce electricity, the possible environmental impacts surrounding large-scale implementation, associated economic factors, and public acceptability. A case study of the Gulf of St. Lawrence is presented as an implementation site, demonstrating the potential for TCTs to assist in phasing out the use of fossil fuels for electricity generation on the Newfoundland island interconnected electricity system. A multi-criteria decision making matrix is presented to discern the benefits of TCTs compared to fossil fuels for the purpose of electricity generation. The paper concludes by examining the potential future of TCTs in the world.

The Lac- Mégantic Disaster and Transport Canada’s Safety Management System (SMS) Model: Implications for Reflexive Regulatory Regimes - Final Version Published Journal of Environmental Law and Practice (JELP 28.3) September 2016

By Mark S. Winfield, Ph.D

In the context of the July 2013 Lac-Mégantic railway disaster, this paper examines the Safety Management System (SMS)-based dimension of the railway safety regulatory regime employed by Transport Canada as an example a smart, or more specifically, reflexive regulatory framework. The paper assesses the railway safety SMS regime through a series of criteria build on the wider literature around smart and reflexive regulatory models. The paper identifies significant weaknesses within the SMS framework, and notes significant parallels between the current railway regulatory regime and early phases of environmental regulation in Canada, particularly with respect to approaches to enforcement. Drawing on subsequent experience in Canadian environmental law over the past three decades, specifically with respect to enhanced enforcement regimes and the expansion of officers’ and directors’ liability, the paper explores ways in which effective and reflexive responses can be prompted from regulated entities, while avoiding key problems that have emerged from Transport Canada’s SMS model. The paper concludes that Canada’s railway SMS experience provides a cautionary tale regarding the risks associated with the pursuit of reflexive regulatory models at the expense of direct regulation, particularly in areas where the consequences of regulatory failure may be catastrophic.

Institutional Diversity, Policy Niches and Smart Grids: The Evolution of Smart Grid Policy and Practice in Ontario, Canada

By Mark S. Winfield, Ph.D & Scott Weiler, MES

This paper examines why smart meter deployment proceeded in Ontario with very low levels of social conflict in comparison to BC and Quebec, and secondly, why Ontario has been able to establish a relatively comprehensive legislative and policy framework around Smart Grid development, while such frameworks remain virtually absent in those jurisdictions.  The answers to both questions are found lie with the relatively complex institutional landscape around electricity that has emerged in Ontario since the break-up of Ontario Hydro in the late 1990s. Specifically, the role of the province’s municipally-owned LDCs as the primary agents for smart meter deployment, as opposed to a dominant provincial utility like BC Hydro or Hydro-Quebec, appears to have had a significant mediating effect on public opposition to smart meters. With respect to Smart Grid policy, the diversity of high capacity institutional actors that now define the province’s electricity policy landscape has facilitated the emergence of a number of interagency policy development niches. In a manner consistent with the concept of niches in the socio-technical transitions literature, the interagency status of these niches has protected them from the regime level selective pressures that would likely have existed in a more unified institutional structure, like those found in BC and Quebec. The Smart Grid Forum, OEB Working Group on Smart Grids, and the Green Button Initiative provide the leading examples of such niches, and have played central roles in the formulation of the province’s policy framework around the Smart Grid and in identifying and responding to emerging policy issues. It remains an open question whether even the higher level of policy analytic capacity provided by these niches is adequate to deal with the range of activities and actors now emerging “behind the meter.”


The 2015 Federal Election - One Year Later. The Liberal Platforms vs. Progress to Date

By Mark S. Winfield, Ph.D

This analysis, developed by SEI Co-Chair Mark Winfield, critically examines the key platform commitments made by the Liberals in the 2015 Federal Election and assesses the progress made thus far.


The 2015 Major Party Election Platforms on the Environment, Energy and Climate Change

By Mark S. Winfield, Ph.D

This analysis, developed by SEI Co-Chair Mark Winfield, examines the key platform commitments from the Conservatives, Liberals, Greens and NDP on environmental energy and climate change issues. It accompanies his blog commentary on the platforms.


Decision-Making, Governance and Sustainability beyond the Age of ‘Responsible Resource Development’

By Mark S. Winfield, Ph.D

This paper examines the role of environmental assessment and public participation in environmental decision-making, particularly in the context of governmental efforts to aggressively ‘streamline’ these processes over the past two decades. The paper argues that the proponents of streamlining have overlooked a key political rationale for the establishment ofenvironmental assessment processes from the early 1970s onwards. Specifically, in addition to improving the quality of decision-making, environmental assessment and public participation processes were established to provide structures through which disputes over the distribution of the costs, benefits and risks of proposed infrastructure and resource development projects could be resolved in a manner which all participants regarded as legitimate. In contrast, the potential for ‘streamlined’ decision-making processes to intensify rather than resolve social and political conflicts is highlighted through a number of Canadian examples. These include the proposed Alberta to British Columbia Northern Gateway Pipeline project, the renewable energy project approval process in Ontario, and the cancellation of proposed natural gas-fired power plants in the same province. The paper argues that the political risks associated with the types of outcomes seen in these cases may provide an important window of opportunity to reform decision-making processes in the direction of advancing sustainability and enhancing the legitimacy and acceptance of the resulting choices.

 


Implementing Environmental Policy in Canada

By Mark S. Winfield, Ph.D

This paper examines the tools and strategies available to governments for the purpose of implementing environmental policy in Canada. The main types of policy instruments available to governments are described including substantive, procedural and institutional mechanisms. The factors influencing government decision-making when choosing implementation tools, such as considerations of effectiveness, efficiency, fairness and political and policy acceptability, are explored as well. Political and policy factors are generally found to outweigh substantive considerations in decision-making. The paper examines the recent changes that have occurred in Canadian governments’ approaches to environmental policy implementation, particularly since the 2008 economic downturn and the 2011 arrival of a Conservative federal government led by Prime Minister Stephen Harper. The paper highlights major shifts in direction with respect to procedural and institutional mechanisms away from strengthening consideration of the environment and public input in decision-making towards facilitating natural resources extraction and development. The incidence of outright withdrawals of substantive requirements regarding protection of the environment is noted, and as a longer-term shift towards of ‘smart’ regulation implementation models for substantive policy instruments. The long-term implications of these shifts in approaches to policy implementation are discussed in terms of the legitimacy and public acceptance of public policy decisions, and the potential risks to public safety, health and the environment resulting from both the loss of governmental policy development and implementation capacity, and the increasing reliance on ‘smart’ regulation implementation models.

 


Ontario 2014 Election: Key Environment and Energy Issues – What Needs to Happen vs. the Party Platforms

By Mark S. Winfield, Ph.D

To accompany his Blog on energy and environment issues in the 2014 Ontario election http://marksw.blog.yorku.ca/2014/05/26/ontarios-not-so-green-election/, Mark Winfield has prepared this table comparing the platforms of the Green Party, NDP, Liberals and Progressive Conservatives on the key environmental issues facing the province, and outlining the key steps that should be taken in each of these areas.

 


Beyond Smart Meters

By Mark S. Winfield, Ph.D and Scott Weiler, MES 2014

This paper, prepared as part of the "Unlocking the potential of Smart Grids" project examines the state of the development in smart grids policy and practice in Ontario. Ontario was initially focussed on smart meters, specifically as instruments for implementing TOU pricing as a DR strategy in the context of difficulties meeting summer peaks. The initial roll-out of smart meters and TOU pricing is essentially complete. Since then, t he province has developed a relatively comprehensive policy framework for the overall development of the smart grid. The framework, as articulated in the 2009 GEGEA and Minister of Energy’s 2010 Smart Grid Directive to the OEB, reflects a substantial expansion of the scope of the province’s goals with respect to the development of a smart grid. Although the province has attempted to develop a proactive policy framework around smart grid development, new technological and market developments, particularly in the area of ‘behind the meter’ energy production and management, may overtake these efforts. The potential for these developments to more profoundly affect the functions of traditional actors in the electricity sector are increasingly recognized within the smart grid policy community, particularly as represented by the IESO-hosted Smart Grid Forum, and some NGOs, municipalities, academics, and smart grid technology providers. The province has yet to begun to grapple with these questions in a formal way. In fact, the OEB has declined to engage with them and these ‘behind the meter’ developments may outstrip the capacity of the province’s existing institutional and regulatory structures to oversee and coordinate. The end result may be more revolutionary than evolutionary than ever anticipated.

 


Understanding the Economic Impact of Renewable Energy Initiatives: Assessing Ontario’s Experience in a Comparative Context

By Mark S. Winfield, Ph.D. with contributions from
Nageen Rehman, Mariana Eret, Dawn Strifler and Paul Cockburn

This paper explores the debates around the Ontario’s Green Energy and Green Economy Act as an energy and economic development strategy. The paper finds that the empirical data on the employment impacts of the Ontario legislation is extremely limited. Rather, the evidence regarding the economic impacts of the GEGEA is found to be almost entirely based on the results of economic modelling exercises. Critics and supporters of the legislation have arrived at very different conclusions through such exercises. These outcomes are similar to those seen in other jurisdictions pursuing renewable energy initiatives. The paper explores the reasons for the different conclusions being reached over the impacts of renewable energy initiatives. Differences in modelling approaches, assumptions regarding the costs of renewable energy technologies relative to non-renewable alternatives and especially the treatment and valuation of environmental and other externalities and risks in modelling the cost impacts of different energy technologies are found to be key factors in explaining the different conclusions. The paper explores the range of ideational perspectives which may underlie these differences in modelling approaches and assumptions.
Secondly, the paper assesses Ontario’s renewable energy initiative as an industrial development strategy. The paper finds that the province was very late in establishing a coherent strategy for the development of the renewable energy manufacturing and services sector. The future prospects for the sector are found to be under serious threat as a result of the uncertainty regarding the province’s ongoing commitment to the development of renewable energy resources. In the absence of a resolution of the issue of the province’s future direction, and of a coherent sectoral development strategy, the paper finds that there is a serious risk that GEGEA exercise will amount to an expensive but temporary countercyclical intervention as opposed to an investment in development of an industrial sector with potential to make significant long term contributions to the Ontario economy.

 


District Energy in Sync with Smart Growth Goals, Planning Figures in Pro Forma

By David MacMillan, MES Candidate

The following is an excerpt from a paper that discusses district energy (DE) as an integral component to energy efficiency strategies for urban municipalities in Ontario. Though climate change, concerns over energy security and the desire for community-scale solutions are driving a renewed interest in DE, implementation must address multiple, complex challenges simultaneously. Therefore, planning for DE systems through integrated urban development strategies can facilitate implementation. However, given that energy policy and planning is typically the domain of the province and land-use planning that of the municipality, this article seeks to frame DE development as an issue that municipalities must necessarily address through local planning. Building density, urban design and neighbourhood typology are all relevant parameters in DE development that are central to urban planning in practice and this paper provides some insight into these relationships.

 


‘Dirty Oil,’ ‘Responsible Resource Development’ and the Prospects for a National Conversation about Energy Sustainability in Canada

By Mark S. Winfield, Ph.D.

Recent events, including a high profile public exchange between Alberta Premier Alison Redford and Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty, comments by federal opposition leader Thomas Mulcair, and the conflicts between BC and Alberta at the most recent premiers' conference have highlighted the growing regional conflicts within Canada over the direction of energy policy and specifically the development of non-renewable energy resources. This paper offers some reflections on the prospects for a constructive national conversation about energy and energy resources development in Canada, leading to a more cohesive national energy policy framework. The paper examines the potential drivers of engagement in such a discussion, particularly in terms of how key provinces perceive their economic, environmental and political interests with respect to energy. Barriers to the emergence of a shared national vision around energy are also considered in these terms, particularly with respect to perceived regional impacts of the federal government's current approach to energy policy. The underlying normative framework for the paper seeks to advance energy sustainability in Canada while addressing the regional divisions over energy policy. Recommendations regarding a potential path forward for Canada are provided, emphasizing the need to moderate the pace of oil sands development, for federal energy policies to address the interests of the non-fossil fuel exporting provinces, the adoption of a carbon pricing mechanism and the strengthening rather than weakening of the environmental regulatory framework for energy resources development.

 


The Environment, “Responsible Resource Development,” and Evidence-Based Policy-Making in Canada

By Mark S. Winfield, Ph.D.

This paper explores the approach of the Harper government to environmental policy and decision-making through the lens of evidence-based policy-making. The paper concludes that the government’s approach can be organized around three core themes: The undermining of the knowledge and information base and capacity for policy-making through budgetary reductions to federal agencies and elimination of specific sources of research and analysis, particularly if they are not in accordance with the government’s agenda; the weakening of mechanisms for EBPM via legislative changes, especially with respect to the federal environmental assessment process; and the constraining non-governmental sources of information, analysis and criticism. These events highlight in particular the vulnerability of efforts at EBPM to the loss of the evidence and information base for decision-making and the capacity of agencies to use what information does exist due to budgetary pressures, and the risks that if the process for gathering and considering evidence comes to be perceived as too cumbersome or time-consuming it can be at risk of attack and “reform” for these reasons. At the same time, obvious failures or unwillingness to allow the proper consideration of evidence in decision-making process can ultimately undermine the political legitimacy and even legal validity of the resulting decisions. The risks of the loss of information and the capacity to assess and use that information weakens governments’ ability to identify and address emerging problems before they manifest themselves as crises or disasters are also highlighted.

 


Competing Policy Paradigms and Hard Path Inertia: The Search for Sustainability in Ontario Electricity Policy

By Mark S. Winfield, Ph.D.

This paper explores the reasons for the instability in Ontario electricity policy over the past three decades. During this period the province has moved through a succession of apparently contradictory policy models: supply planning; “soft” energy paths and integrated resource planning; a “market” model; a “hybrid” model combining market and planning elements; a renewable energy paradigm centred around the Green Energy and Green Economy Act (GEGEA); and most recently an ad hoc approach driven by political management considerations. The paper argues that this situation reflects the extent to which the long- standing historical consensus around the objectives of the province’s electricity system of providing cheap and abundant electricity, and the planning models used to support those objectives, has broken down. The result has been a highly unstable policy environment in which different constituencies have been able to take advantage of the “policy windows” created by convergences of problems and ‘crises’, political circumstances and the availability of new policy ideas, to take control of the electricity policy agenda - until the arrival of the next window. The paper concludes that the pattern of radical changes in direction is destined to continue unless steps are taken to build consensus around the system’s goals and structure and to ensure that it advances energy sustainability.

 


Water is Liquid Electricity

By Peter Love, Ph.D.

Water availability and quality are emerging as huge global issues, which may well become a tangible crisis before even climate change reaches that point. You can expect to hear more and more about this as it begins to compete with climate change as the leading environmental issue of this century.

While Canada, including Ontario, is extremely fortunate to have among the largest sources of fresh water in the world, we are not managing this resource very well.

 


Is Not So Hard Being Green

By Peter Love, Ph.D.

Responsibility for a company's environmental and social issues rest with the board of directors. One of these issues, arguably the most important, is climate change, along with related matters of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) and energy. This article will focus on the direct links between these issues, and why directors need to care.

 


Green Buildings in China

By Peter Love, Ph.D.

This first column combines two topics familiar to everyone on their own but not together. It is based on a recent trip to China to speak at an international low-carbon conference and to follow up on earlier meetings with building inspection officials from China during a Canadian study tour.

 


Great $aves

By Peter Love, Ph.D.

Modern concerns about energy started with two oil-price shocks in the 1970s, coming to the fore again in the 1980s with the Chernobyl nuclear disaster and the Exxon Valdez oil spill. Then, more recently, we experienced the Deepwater Horizon and Fukushima disasters. Who knows what the future holds?

The response to these episodes largely consisted of trying to clean up the mess and finding replacement energy. Now, however, there is a drive to look for ways to reduce our energy use in the first place through energy conservation and efficiency. With this change in focus have come some inventive means of realizing energy performance gains in cost-effective and business-friendly ways.